When excluding vote count from the city of Galesburg, Knox County has become redder with each presidential election since 2008.
Votes for Republican presidential candidates in Knox County outside the city of Galesburg peaked to 64% in 2024, which is the largest majority recorded in the last two decades.
Including votes from Galesburg, support for the Republican presidential candidate has also progressively increased in Knox County as a whole, going from about 38% in 2008 to 53% in 2024, according to unofficial election results.
“Donald Trump has increased the share of rural voters, while the Democrats have increased their share of urban voters and suburban voters. That's been consistent across the country. So it makes sense that Knox County would, over the last three presidential cycles, really swing,” said Andy Civettini, Associate Professor and Chair of Political Science and International Relations Chair at Knox College.
While the support for Democratic presidential candidates in Galesburg has also decreased, from 63% in 2008 to 53% in 2024, the city retains its Democratic majority.
The largest shift in partisan support was between 2012 and 2016, when support for the Democratic presidential candidate dropped by 16% and support for the Republican candidate increased by 11%.
“2016 actually saw lower levels of enthusiasm among Democrats for both their candidate and their prospects of winning and lower enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate than we saw in 2012 or 2008, and lower than we saw in 2020,” Civettini said.
Although the amount of registered voters in Knox County has gradually decreased since 2008, turnout continues to fluctuate between 65% and 70%. Turnout actually decreased by about 4% between 2012 and 2016, however.
“Enthusiasm drives people to the polls. Liking your candidate, wanting your candidate to succeed makes you more likely to vote,” Civettini said.
In 2024, voter turnout increased in Knox County when excluding Galesburg, but turnout decreased in Galesburg and in Knox County as a whole.
Civettini attributes voter turnout to a “divergent set of information” held by liberals and conservatives, particularly in rural areas.
For example, he said, liberals believe the country has had a much larger recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, while conservatives believe it’s become much worse.
“So that selective diet of information that they're attending to leads them to divergent views,” Civettini said. “They're pretty sure about those divergent views, and that conviction probably makes them more likely to vote.”
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