Macomb city leaders believe the U.S. Census Bureau undercounted the city’s population in 2020. Now the city council has agreed to ask for a special census.
Before making the request, the city worked with the GIS Center at Western Illinois Universityto analyze where the bureau might have missed people.
Community Development Coordinator John Bannon said they zeroed in on student apartment complexes such as Turnberry Village and Aspen Court.
“That high change is probably due to COVID and other factors specific to when the 2020 census was conducted,” Bannon said.
“The occupancy level is still very high. So in those tracts, we would reasonably expect that variance to become much closer to the 2010 numbers and not the 2020 numbers.”
It’s not yet known when the special census will be done.
The city council voted 6-to-1 in favor of conducting the recount. The fourth ward’s Dave Dorsett was the lone dissenter. He feels the city will get only a small return on its investment while tying up staff time.
The city has also asked for recounts in the past. The special census in 2013 boosted the city’s population from the 2010 figure of 19,288 to 21,509 – an increase of 2,221.
The city expected a lower headcount in 2020, in part because enrollment fell at WIU. But the census bureau’s finding of 15,051 residents was a couple thousand fewer than what the city projected.
The price tag for the recount
The city estimates the special census will cost $361,319.
That’s quite a bit more than what they have cost in the past, when the city could choose what specific areas would be counted again.
Bannon said the census bureau is now only allowing recounts that include one entire census tract. The tracts are designated by the census bureau – they don’t follow city or township boundaries.
For Macomb, that means counting a larger area than it wants to, including some locations that are outside the city limits. Bannon estimated the recount will include 33% more area than the city feels is necessary.
The potential benefit
Bannon said if the Georgetown subdivision west of the city limits annexes into Macomb, the special census could yield the city an additional $754,600 in federal funding over five years.
If Georgetown remains outside the city limits, the yield would be $474,920.
However, some of that extra income would be offset by the cost of conducting the special census.
The federal government uses census figures to determine its distribution of funding for healthcare, highways, school lunches, and hundreds of other programs.
Macomb is not alone in feeling undercounted by the census bureau. Illinois is challenging the agency’s count for the state.
State officials believe Illinois was undercounted by almost 2%, which could cost it $1.2 billion in federal funding over a decade.
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